by Rick Valente
With free agency about to heat up in the NFL, it's kind of refreshing to begin a normal offseason, given the stress and disorganization that ensued during last year's lockout. I actually believe that the lockout helped the Patriots reach the Super Bowl this year due to all the craziness and lack of time that left almost every team with major flaws on their roster. The Packers, Patriots, Saints and Giants were the four worst pass defenses in the league. The Bengals, Ravens and 49ers couldn't pass the ball on offense. The Falcons had absolutely terrible coaching. Honestly, the only team without a glaring weakness was the Houston Texans, but injuries cost them a season where they certainly could have won the Super Bowl. It was an absolute
toss-up for who was going to come out of both conferences, and the Patriots and Giants just happened to be peaking at the right times. This offseason will be all about who can fill their holes most efficiently.
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| Fills holes efficiently. |
When highlighting these needs, I am making zero assumptions on who the Patriots might re-sign from their own free agents. So as the roster currently stands (including the recently-franchised Wes Welker), here are the top-five positional needs for the Patriots entering the 2012 offseason.
5. Wide Receiver
Significant Players Under Contract: Wes Welker, Chad Ochocinco, Julian Edelman
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| Garcon is a talented and affordable option. |
Having the best tight end tandem in the game makes the wide receiver need significantly less pressing, but by no means irrelevant. I know that the idea has been beaten to death by now, but I really think this offense would be helped out by a guy who can make catches downfield. We don't need a guy like 2007 Randy Moss to throw bombs to, but getting a guy who can make a cut 15-25 yards into his route and go make a catch (think Anquan Boldin) would really bring something new to this offense. Marques Colston would be an ideal addition to fit this mold, but after committing over $9 million to Welker, I don't see the Pats spending much more at one position. Pierre Garcon or Robert Meachem could fill the role for much cheaper, but the market really drops off after these guys. Mohammed Sanu from Rutgers would be a good option for the Patriots if he fell to them in the second round. One final thought: Brandon Lloyd has come out and said that his number one factor in deciding where he signs is where Josh McDaniels is coaching. It just so happens that he is coaching in New England, and if Lloyd takes a discount to come here (signing in the $4-6 Million dollar region), it would be HUGE news for Tom Brady and the New England offense.
4. Cornerback
Significant Players Under Contract: Devin McCourty, Ras-I Dowling, Kyle Arrington
I look at the Patriots' cornerback situation as being very similar to last year's Texans team. They aren't an effective unit because they have the supporting characters, but lack a true shutdown guy. Adding Johnathan Joseph carried the Houston secondary from last in the NFL to third-best, and I believe a similar jump could happen if the Pats can get Carlos Rogers or Cortland Finnegan through free agency. McCourty is realistically going to perform somewhere in between his Pro Bowl season two years ago, and his dismal season last year, making a good second option at corner. Arrington was the best corner on the field in 2011 and could split time on the outside and at nickle with McCourty. Ras-I Dowling is a wild card who has buckets of talent and size, but can't seem to stay on the field. Adding a solid defender to the top of that depth chart could completely turn this unit around. I see free agency as the best way to address this position. If the front office fails to sign a free agent, I would like to see them draft a cornerback with one of their two first-round picks. Guys like Stephon Gilmore from South Carolina and Alfonzo Dennard from Nebraska would add depth to the unit, but may take time to develop into shut-down guys.
3. Center
Significant Players Under Contract: (None)
I'm confident that Brian Waters is coming back for at least one more season, and even if Light retires, Vollmer and Solder make for a solid pair or tackles. The center position is the only spot on the offensive line that the Patriots don't currently have a starting caliber player signed. The best solution here would be to re-sign either Dan Connolly or Dan Koppen, who both have chemistry with Brady, and have proven to be effective middle-men on the O-line. Chris Myers and Scott Wells are very good replacement options in free agency, but would be significantly more expensive than Koppen or Connolly.
2. Defensive End
Significant Players Under Contract: Brandon Deaderick
The Patriots are deep at defensive tackle, but there is almost nobody left from last year's defensive end unit with Andre Carter, Mark Anderson and Shaun Ellis all being free agents. There has been speculation that Belichick would go after Mario Williams, and I would honestly love to see that happen, but I don't believe it will. Williams is going to get an insane contract, and the Pats don't do insane. There are some very appetizing prospects in the draft that could fall to the Patriots at 27 such as USC's Nick Perry and Whitney Mercilus from Illinois. Both guys could come in and make an immediate impact. The Patriots have a lot of work to do for the defensive end position, so it's not really a situation where just drafting one player fixes the team need. The Patriots have to re-sign Mark Anderson and/or Andre Carter, draft an end with one of their first three picks in the draft, and get another complimentary piece through free agency. I think Jeremy Mincey or Louis Castillo would be solid free agent pick-ups that wouldn't require top-end money to sign.
1. Strong Safety
Significant Players Under Contract: (None)
Aside from Patrick Chung, the Patriots don't have anyone close to being a decent starting safety. It is clearly the most pressing need for this team. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the strong safety position is also the position with the least depth in both the draft and free agency. Luckily Chung can move from free safety to the strong side if need be, so the Pats really just need to acquire a starting-caliber player at either safety spot. If the Patriots can trade up to get Mark Barron from Alabama, it would represent an immediate and significant upgrade. If that doesn't happen, the Pats are in trouble because there is there is the slimmest of pickings on the free agent market. LaRon Landry could be one option, but he is injury prone, making him a risk. James Sanders could come back to New England, but I think Belichick is too proud to make that signing, which would basically concede that he made a mistake releasing Sanders (which he definitely did).
With a comfortable amount of salary cap space and four picks in the first two rounds of the draft, the Patriots are in a good position to fill every need on this list except for safety, where it will be quite challenging to find help. I wouldn't be surprised if Belichick used his stock-pile of picks to try and trade for somebody. Whatever they do, the Patriots need to upgrade that position or they could end up with the same, weak secondary as last year.
I look at the Patriots' cornerback situation as being very similar to last year's Texans team. They aren't an effective unit because they have the supporting characters, but lack a true shutdown guy. Adding Johnathan Joseph carried the Houston secondary from last in the NFL to third-best, and I believe a similar jump could happen if the Pats can get Carlos Rogers or Cortland Finnegan through free agency. McCourty is realistically going to perform somewhere in between his Pro Bowl season two years ago, and his dismal season last year, making a good second option at corner. Arrington was the best corner on the field in 2011 and could split time on the outside and at nickle with McCourty. Ras-I Dowling is a wild card who has buckets of talent and size, but can't seem to stay on the field. Adding a solid defender to the top of that depth chart could completely turn this unit around. I see free agency as the best way to address this position. If the front office fails to sign a free agent, I would like to see them draft a cornerback with one of their two first-round picks. Guys like Stephon Gilmore from South Carolina and Alfonzo Dennard from Nebraska would add depth to the unit, but may take time to develop into shut-down guys.
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3. Center
Significant Players Under Contract: (None)
I'm confident that Brian Waters is coming back for at least one more season, and even if Light retires, Vollmer and Solder make for a solid pair or tackles. The center position is the only spot on the offensive line that the Patriots don't currently have a starting caliber player signed. The best solution here would be to re-sign either Dan Connolly or Dan Koppen, who both have chemistry with Brady, and have proven to be effective middle-men on the O-line. Chris Myers and Scott Wells are very good replacement options in free agency, but would be significantly more expensive than Koppen or Connolly.
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| Nick Perry, DE, USC |
Significant Players Under Contract: Brandon Deaderick
The Patriots are deep at defensive tackle, but there is almost nobody left from last year's defensive end unit with Andre Carter, Mark Anderson and Shaun Ellis all being free agents. There has been speculation that Belichick would go after Mario Williams, and I would honestly love to see that happen, but I don't believe it will. Williams is going to get an insane contract, and the Pats don't do insane. There are some very appetizing prospects in the draft that could fall to the Patriots at 27 such as USC's Nick Perry and Whitney Mercilus from Illinois. Both guys could come in and make an immediate impact. The Patriots have a lot of work to do for the defensive end position, so it's not really a situation where just drafting one player fixes the team need. The Patriots have to re-sign Mark Anderson and/or Andre Carter, draft an end with one of their first three picks in the draft, and get another complimentary piece through free agency. I think Jeremy Mincey or Louis Castillo would be solid free agent pick-ups that wouldn't require top-end money to sign.
1. Strong Safety
Significant Players Under Contract: (None)
Aside from Patrick Chung, the Patriots don't have anyone close to being a decent starting safety. It is clearly the most pressing need for this team. Unfortunately for the Patriots, the strong safety position is also the position with the least depth in both the draft and free agency. Luckily Chung can move from free safety to the strong side if need be, so the Pats really just need to acquire a starting-caliber player at either safety spot. If the Patriots can trade up to get Mark Barron from Alabama, it would represent an immediate and significant upgrade. If that doesn't happen, the Pats are in trouble because there is there is the slimmest of pickings on the free agent market. LaRon Landry could be one option, but he is injury prone, making him a risk. James Sanders could come back to New England, but I think Belichick is too proud to make that signing, which would basically concede that he made a mistake releasing Sanders (which he definitely did).
With a comfortable amount of salary cap space and four picks in the first two rounds of the draft, the Patriots are in a good position to fill every need on this list except for safety, where it will be quite challenging to find help. I wouldn't be surprised if Belichick used his stock-pile of picks to try and trade for somebody. Whatever they do, the Patriots need to upgrade that position or they could end up with the same, weak secondary as last year.
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