Wednesday, March 14, 2012

NFL Free Agency Update: The Opening Bell


by Rick Valente

Let the madness begin! The new league year started yesterday at 4:00 PM EST and there was absolutely no shortage of excitement and entertainment from around the NFL. The Bucs went from a projected cellar-dweller to a legitimate contender in the AFC South in a matter of 16 hours, the Redskins continued to spend in an MC-Hammer-like fashion, and the Bears finally added a legitimate (on-field) wide receiver by way of trade. We'll get to all of it, but first, some quick thoughts pertaining to the home-town team after day one.

Patriots Stay Quiet So Far

There were twelve teams that made major moves in one way or another in the first day of free agency, and the Patriots weren't one of them. They did sign special-teamer and depth-linebacker Niko Koutouvides, and are supposedly close to a deal with special teams captain Matthew Slater. They aren't sexy moves by any means, but remember that having solid role players is absolutely essential to success in the NFL. The Chargers are a good example of a team that has so much talent on its starting roster, but their lack of depth eventually ends up dooming them.

The Patriots are probably not happy about the activity in the wide receiver market yesterday. Vincent Jackson signed for over $11 million per year, Pierre Garcon signed for over $8 million per year, and Robert Meachem signed for over $6 million per year. The wide receiver market is overvalued right now, and teams are paying way too much for pass-catchers, which hurts the Patriots in more than one way. 

Welker will be looking to cash in.
First, Wes Welker gained a tremendous amount of leverage against the Patriots' front office through these signings. Just comparing the players on the field, I would say that Welker is a shade under V-Jax in terms of value, and vastly more valuable than Garcon. Now when you compare Welker's value to what Jackson and Garcon are making, Wes would be looking to make about $10 million per year, which is just too much in my opinion. If Wes won't take a more team-friendly deal, I could definitely see the Patriots keeping him as their franchise player at $9.4 million and letting him test the free agent waters next year.

Also, with these monster contracts being signed to receivers, the odds of signing Brandon Lloyd drastically decrease. If Meachem pulled in over $6 million per year from the Chargers, how much will the man who led the NFL in receiving yards two years ago pull in? The salary cap is $120 million, so do you really want to spend $17-20 million of it on your top two receivers? You can only hope that the potential to win a ring and the serious man-crush Lloyd has on offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is enough to get him to sign well below current market value.

As far as the free agent market for cornerbacks go, it does not look like New England is going to get a top-level guy through free agency. Cortland Finnegan and Carlos Rodgers have been locked up by St. Louis and San Fransisco respectively, Eric Wright signed with the Buccaneers, and Brandon Carr is visiting with Dallas today. I'm pretty sure Dallas will give Carr an offer he can't refuse, especially after the release of Terence Newman. Lardarius Webb and Aaron Ross are still on the market, and both would be welcome additions to the secondary, but it would have to be at the right price.

Before I get to the quick hits, it's worth noting that Steve Gregory is en route to visiting the Patriots this afternoon. He was the starter in San Diego opposite from Eric Weddle, but is probably better playing in the free safety role, which is a good fit since Patrick Chung is better suited in then strong safety role. Once again, it's not the juiciest of free agent targets, but it would improve that position from last year. LaRon Landry is also recently reported to be on the Pats' radar.

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Quick Hits Around the NFL:
  • As it stands right now, Tampa Bay are the biggest winners in the free agency market. They get a top target in Vincent Jackson, they sign perhaps the best guard in the league in Carl Nicks away from division rival New Orleans, and get Eric Wright for some secondary help. Also with a top-five pick in the draft, the Buccaneers will be MUCH improved from last year.
  • Staying in the NFC South, the Saints re-signed Marques Colston for five years ad $8 million per year. Given the aforementioned market for receivers, it's a good signing for the Saints.
  • I think that the Redskins front office realized that their fan base wasn't going to continue to pay to see a loser, supported by declining attendance on game-day, and I'm sure by the lack of season ticket renewals. That is why you see them sacrificing their future for the here and now. It might hurt to lose three first rounders and a second for Robert Griffin III, but he has superstar potential, and people will pay to see him play. They overpaid for Garcon and Josh Morgan, but now the Washington will be able to compete in the NFC East, putting butts in those seats.
  • The Bears traded two third round picks to Miami for Brandon Marshall. This move speaks to how much of a headache he must be off the field, because you don't see a talent like Marshall get traded for so little without more to the story. However if he doesn't infect the locker room in Chicago, it could mean big things for the Bears' offense to have the Cutler-Marshall connection back together. That's a big if.
  • St. Louis locked up Cortland Finnegan for 5 years and $50 million. It's a lot of money for Finnegan, but I like the intensity that he could bring to the St. Louis defense. The Rams might be having the best off-season in regards to long-term thinking. Look for them in the 2014 playoffs at the latest.
  • I really like the signing of Robert Meachem to the Chargers. Meachem was buried behind the endless talent New Orleans had on offense over the last few years, and I can see him breaking out into a 1,000 yard guy as a top target for Phillip Rivers.
  • Buffalo is looking like the surprise front-runner in the Mario Williams sweepstakes. He has been there since last night, was seen walking out of the Bills' medical facility (presumably for a physical), and was said to be waiting for his fiance to arrive at the airport.
  • The biggest surprise so far was Reggie Wayne re-signing with the Colts. Great for the Colts, but it makes no sense to me why Wayne would want to stay. He is clearly in the twilight of his career, and the Colts aren't close to being a relevant team in the next few years. Other re-signings include Jeremy Mincey and Dwight Lowery to the Jaguars, Harry Douglas to Atlanta, Carlos Rodgers to San Fransisco, Trent Cole to Philadelphia, and Jared Gaither to San Diego.
Stay tuned for more free agency updates and analysis.

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