image
   
By Rick Valente

The NFL Draft is only two months away, and what better way to forget about the heartbreaking past than to look at the promising future? Cleveland, Cincinnati, and New England all have two selections in the first round and New Orleans, Atlanta and Oakland have none. I'm not going to speculate on trades this time around because it is way too early to do such a thing. Sure, Washington might trade up to the #2 spot to get RG3, but they also might sign Matt Moore in March (which they should do, but they won't, because they're the Redskins). I also decided to not dive into trades because if I did, the Patriots wouldn't be included in this piece since they are most likely going to package their two first rounders for a first round pick in 2015 and four third rounders. For one final note before we get started, success in the NFL is very closely tied to your success in drafting. This is very bad news for Oakland Raider fans who have to wait until the 13th pick in the FIFTH round to see their team make their first selection. They will then proceed to use their drafting savvy and scouting prowess to draft the fastest player on the board. Okay, enough with the small talk, let's get down to brass tax with the first 32 picks of this April's NFL Draft.

1. Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
Andrew Luck would have been the 1st pick of the draft last year, and he did nothing this year to change his status as the best player coming out of college. It will be interesting to see how the Peyton Manning situation shakes out in Indy, but if the Colts cut ties with the best player in their franchise's history, there will be significant salary cap room and a deep free agent class to build around their quarterback of the present and future.
On a side note, Luck's decision to return to Stanford last year had far more of an impact on this year's NFL than you might initially think. If Luck was available in last years draft, Cam Newton would have fallen to the Broncos at the #2 spot. That means Tebowmania, the biggest story in the NFL this year, either would never have happened, or would have happened somewhere other than Denver.



2. St. Louis Rams
Matt Kalil, OT, USC
There are a lot of mock drafts that I have seen where the Rams take Justin Blackmon here. That decision screams Detroit Lions a la 2003, 2004, and 2005. What good is Blackmon if Sam Bradford has less than two seconds to throw the ball when he isn't injured from all the "look out" blocks he would be getting if this offensive line is not improved. The Rams need to protect their investment in Sam Bradford, and Matt Kalil is where you start with that. The free agent class is loaded with wide receivers to give Bradford some legitimate weapons (Dwayne Bowe, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, Desean Jackson, Steve Johnson), so assuming the Rams stay at #2, Kalil is their guy.

3. Minnesota Vikings
Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Minnesota gave up more passing touchdowns than any other team in the NFL last year. They were also tied for the fewest interceptions with a measly 8. The Vikings are in the same boat as the Rams when it comes to having an inferior offensive line protecting a promising young quarterback, but when you have the third overall pick in the draft, and the best available player is also someone who can patch up a glaring weakness on your team, you take that player. Another thing to consider is that Claiborne can take on kick-returning duties in place of the oft-injured Percy Harvin. With questions surrounding Adrian Peterson's knee, Harvin becomes your most important player on offense, and someone you don't want to risk losing.

4. Cleveland Browns
Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
Browns fans should rejoice if RG3 falls to them in the fourth pick. This Cleveland team needs help everywhere except for their pretty good pass defense. Griffin will not only make this painfully boring Cleveland offense instantly more exciting to watch, but he also has the opportunity to become the new face of Cleveland sports. Kyrie Irving might be good, but I don't see his "WOW" factor.  Griffin is fast, but he is also a pass-first quarterback and pretty accurate to boot (72% completion rate and a 36-8 TD/INT ratio last year.) Cleveland's wide receivers have a good amount of talent and are loaded with potential, they just didn't have someone to get them the ball. Griffin would help turn the third worst scoring offense in the NFL into something respectable at worst.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
Brockers is the best DT prospect in the draft. I think Devon Still could end up being the better player in the NFL, but his lengthy injury history and off-the-field problems is not something you want to take on with a top-5 pick, especially with a young team like the Buccaneers.  Brockers on the other hand has had no known incidents off the field at LSU, and has no injury history in college. The Bucs were an absolute sieve on the ground last year, ranking last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, and allowing a league-high 26 rushing touchdowns. That is SEVEN more touchdowns than the next worse team (IND and BUF each allowed 19 rushing TD's.) Dumping the cancer that is Albert Haynesworth and adding a guy like Brockers in the middle of your defensive line is the type of move a winning franchise would make.
UPDATE: The Bucs have released Albert Haynesworth today, 2/15

6. Washington Redskins
Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
The Redskins actually have a roster that is one good off-season away from playoff contention. The first problem that they have to address is the quarterback position, but with Luck and Griffin off the board, the 'Skins are going to have to look elsewhere. Adding Blackmon as a weapon with Gaffney, Santana Moss, and Fred Davis makes the Washington passing game dangerous, especially if they can lure Matt Moore or Peyton Manning to sign as a free agent. Blackmon is more of a possession and goal-line receiver which will mix well with the speedy moss and Gaffney, and could turn Washington's offense into an asset rather than a liability on the field.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars
Qinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
Jacksonville is built to be a smash-mouth team right now. They have a dominant running game with MJD, and a solid defense that could be scary good if you add an elite pass rusher into the mix. Enter Qinton Coples. Coples is easily the best pass rusher in the draft, and is also a three-down player who can push the pile back on a run or pass play.  The Jaguars passing game is lacking someone to effectively throw the ball, and anyone to effectively catch it. That could be a slight problem. If the Jags want to win games this year, it will be establishing a lead and controlling the clock with the running game, while leaning on the defense to keep Blaine Gabbert from having to pass. Its not a good sign when your best chance of winning lies in keeping the ball out of your first-round quarterback's hands, but you can't take that draft pick back now. Maybe owner Shahid Khan can trade his yacht for a decent field-general.

8. Miami Dolphins
Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Riley Reiff has the versatility and quickness that makes him a perfect fit for Miami's offensive line.  Riley can immediately start at right tackle for the Dolphins opposite Jake Long, instantaneously upgrading the Dolphin's pass-protection.  He also has the quickness to get up field or out in the flats, which will help Reggie Bush continue his success with the Dolphins.  Reiff did have an incident with the police for public intoxication in his freshman year, but this is unlikely to affect his draft status since he went the rest of his career at Iowa without incident. The Dolphins have a lot of issues to address this off-season, but the addition of Reiff gives them a good start.

9. Carolina Panthers
Devon Still, DT, Penn State
The Panthers struck gold last year with Cam Newton revitalizing their offense.  While the Panthers improved from being the worst team in football, they are still in the bottom third of the league because of their defense. The Panthers would ideally like Michael Brockers to fall to them at #9, but with Brockers off the board, the Panthers get the next best thing in Devon Still. Still is less NFL-ready than Brockers, but he still possesses the tools to contribute in the middle of the Panthers' 4-3 scheme. He isn't going to rack up many sacks, but his ability to clog the middle will be a needed asset on this team.

10. Buffalo Bills
Nick Perry, DE, USC
The Buffalo Bills couldn't rush the passer and couldn't stop the run last year. It was these two weaknesses that led to them falling apart at the end of the season.  Nick Perry is a player who is strong in both of these aspects of the game.  He led the Pac-10 with 9.5 sacks while also possessing the instincts to contribute in stopping the run. Perry, being a hybrid-type player fits in well with the 3-4 scheme run by Buffalo.  Buffalo has talent on its defensive front with Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus, and Paul Posluszny, but it just wasn't enough last year. Perry's skill could be key in filling the holes that last year's line left open for rushers, as well as being able to take pressure off the secondary by getting to the quarterback.

11. Seattle Seahawks
Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
The Seattle defense was stout last year, but the offense was sub-par. It would have been disastrous if it weren't for the explosion of Marshawn Lynch seemingly out of nowhere. Seattle gave up the fourth most amount of sacks despite being in the bottom-10 in pass attempts per game. When your quarterback already has trouble reading the field like Tavaris Jackson does, it doesn't help that he faces almost immediate pressure on pass plays. Martin faced the pressure of protecting Andrew Luck for the past two seasons, and handled it very well.  He doesn't bring the same raw talent as Kalil or Reiff, but has solid football intelligence and character. Certainly a player Pete Carroll would want in his locker room.

12. Kansas City Chiefs
Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
Kansas City is a team that likes to run the football. The injury to Jamaal Charles forced them to pass more than they would have liked last year, and certainly exposed their depth at the running back position. Thomas Jones is past his expiration date as a runner with any significance in the NFL, and Jackie Battle showed he isn't more than a depth guy in the backfield. If Charles isn't able to return to his former self, Richardson would be able to step in as the bell-cow back and would be more than a decent option to lead the running game. However, if Charles can return to form, he and Richardson could split carries to become perhaps the best slash and smash combo in the NFL. While Haley is out as head coach, I'm sure the trend of limiting Charles' carries will continue with Crenell, and Richardson would ensure that an elite running back is always on the field for the Chiefs.

13. Arizona Cardials
David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
The Arizona Cardinals clearly need help on the offensive side of the ball. Getting a player like David DeCastro helps the running and passing game, while adding a quality player to the locker room. Arizona gave up the second most sacks in the NFL and also had a very inconsistent running game. DeCastro is an elite talent in both run blocking and pass protection, so while adding a guard is not the sexiest pick to make, it is actually the pick that would help the Cardinals out the most. An addition like Castro allows Beanie Wells to run better and buys more time for Larry Fitzgerald to get open, which are both keys to scoring more points for the Arizona Cardinals offense.

14. Dallas Cowboys
Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
Terrence Newman is well past his prime, and can't be the number one cornerback in a good pass defense. Dre Kirkpatrick is your old-school Dallas Cwboys player that Jerry Jones loves. His nickname is "swag" and he shows plenty of it on the field. He is an all-around talent who can play press-man coverage, defend the run, and has the hand-eye coordination to pick off passes that come his way.  The Cowboys' pass defense is really one of their only weaknesses, and if Kirkpatrick can step up and become a decent left cornerback for them, they could have a top-5 defense led by Rob Ryan. Kirkpatrick's stock if hurt by his arrest in Florida this year, but will still be a first round selection, especially after Nick Saban has still vouched for him after the incident.

15. Philadelphia Eagles
Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
The Desean Jackson era in Philadelphia has come crashing down abruptly. In less than 12 months Jackson went from the guy breaking the Giants' hearts with a miraculous punt return and leading the Eagles to the playoffs, to one of the leading culprits on a team that underperformed in an epic fashion. Kendall Wright is the same type of receiver as Jackson, so the offense wouldn't have to change much around him, but the attitude Wright brings is far different. Wright is a leader and a gritty performer who will go over the middle without a second thought. He has the ball skills to compensate for Vick's lack of accuracy, and is a decent blocker for his size. Lots of mock drafts have the Eagles going for defense in this spot, but I feel the most important focus on this team should be finding players to detract attention from Michael Vick, so he can stay on the field.

16. New York Jets
Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
I think the Jets take Kendall Wright here if he falls to them. Plaxico Burress is no longer even a legitimate second option, and Santonio Holmes is a time bomb about to explode. A guy with character issues and $15.25 million guaranteed to him over the next two years has no incentive to behave. But it is all a moot point with the Eagles selecting Wright in the previous pick. I have the Jets going defense here. The Jets have were much softer on defense compared to recent years, and they need somebody to help establish them as a top-level defensive team again because their offense is well below average. Courtney Upshaw would be a step in the right direction for this Jets team. The basis of the old Jets defense was to pressure the quarterback while Cromartie and Revis kept the receivers contained, but since the Jets are no longer effective at getting to the quarterback, their advantage of having two of the best corners in the game is compromised. Upshaw is an elite level pass-rusher who will help fill this hole.

17. Cincinatti Bengals
Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Even with the emergence of Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, the Bengals were in the bottom third in the NFL for pass yards, rush yards, and points scored per game. The defense really didn't get the credit that it deserved last season, and I think that offense should be the focus for the Bengals here. Floyd is a perfect compliment to a guy like AJ Green, and if both Green and Dalton progress from their rookie year, this trio could certainly go for over 2,000 yards. Where Green is a burner and a guy who relies on his quickness down field, Floyd is a much more physical receiver who relies on his size and athleticism to catch the ball. He has some off-the-field issues with alcohol, but when has character ever stopped the Bengals from acquiring a talented football player?

18. San Diego Chargers
Melvin Ingram, OLB, South Carolina
Ingram was a late first to mid-second round projection not too long ago. Now, with his stock on the rise, San Diego would be happy if he makes it to the 18th pick, and could really use the help on the edge getting to the quarterback.  The Chargers' defense is on the decline, and their offense is fine even if they don't resign free agent Vincent Jackson. They have good running backs, and the Floyd/Brown/Gates combo are more than enough for Rivers to work with. Ingram is still a little raw, but he is coachable, and playing in the SEC usually translates into a shorter adjustment period to the speed of the NFL. He has the size (6-2 276 lbs) and experience at SC to play standing up or next to the tackle. I'm always a little skeptical of guys who see their stick shoot up like Ingram's, because there was a reason they were initially projected later (see: Vernon Ghoulston), but many times their stock rises for good reason too (see: Jason Pierre-Paul).

19. Chicago Bears
Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
We aren't doing trades in this mock draft, but I think it would be wise of Chcago to trade down here. Sanu is a reach that I think they can get at the end of the first round, and usually you want to see your team draft the best available player. However, the wide receivers on the Bears are so bad that Sanu becomes the best available player for this team out of necessity. With all that said, I still see Sanu as a first round talent who has a lot to bring to the table to this Bears team.  He isn't going to burn you down field, but he might have the best hands in the draft, was praised by coach Greg Schiano (now head coach of the Bucs) for his locker room presence, and takes his blocking role on the field seriously. Sanu is certainly an upgrade from Roy Williams.

20. Tennesee Titans
Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
The Titans were not very strong at all lat year against the run, so adding the Butkus Trophy winner will be a key addition to this team. I have Kuechly falling this far because his lack of athleticism will most likely result in some unflattering combine numbers, which are somewhere in between overrated and irrelevant, but are still given credence by some NFL decision-makers for some reason. How good is Kuechly? He was second in the nation in tackling his freshman year, led the nation in tackling his sophomore year, and last year as well; not to mention, he is a two-time All American. Kuechly is very Bruschi-like in the sense that he lets his football intelligence and instincts carry him from average to elite. However there is a big leap from ACC football to the NFL, which is the only question mark surrounding the BC standout.

21. Cincinatti Bengals
Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
As mentioned in Cincy's previous pick (Michael Floyd), the Bengals are not shy to roll the dice on talent that comes with baggage. While Jenkins might be the best cornerback in this draft, he was arrested twice while at Florida, and kicked off the team, forcing him to join Division II North Alabama this year. In the cut-throat world of SEC football, it speaks pretty loudly about a player's character if a coach is willing to cut ties with a First Team All-SEC cornerback. However, Jenkins was a standout at the Senior Bowl, and Cincinatti could use some secondary help. Nate Clements isn't getting any younger at 32, safety Reggie Nelson is an unrestricted free agent, and Pacman Jones... well he is Pacman Jones. The defense carried this team to the playoffs last year, but it definitely could use some fresh legs.

22. Cleveland Browns
Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State
Cleveland was a top-three team against the pass last year, but a bottom-three team against the run. Worthy is a disruptive force in the middle who has the potential to blow up inside run plays before they begin, as well as possessing the ability to push the pocket back in passing situations. He has high football intelligence as well as leadership skills on and off the field. One area of concern is his conditioning, which sometimes affected his fourth quarter play in college. He isn't someone who is going to chase many people down, but will swallow up anybody who enters his part of the field. Cleveland has the potential to make the biggest first round improvement out of any NFL team, and would certainly do so in acquiring RG3 and Worthy.

23. Detroit Lions
Mark Barron, S, Alabama
The Detroit Lions were one of the surprising stories of 2011, with Matthew Stafford leading the team to the playoffs and earning Comeback Player of the Year.  Where the offense has certainly crossed over to elite status, the defense showed that it could not stop top-level offenses. Barron is a classic ball hawk, and would add a play-maker to a Lions secondary who doesn't have one. I'm not going to compare him to Ed Reed, if you're wondering. Every year the best play-making safety gets compared to Reed, but it is really like saying Andrew Luck is the next Tom Brady or Drew Brees; he might be, but its ridiculous to proclaim. Even if the Lions lose Cliff Avril to free agency, they are stacked on the D-line, so focusing their attention to the secondary would be wise.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers
Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
If the Pittsburgh Steelers like having Ben Roethlisberger as their quarterback, which I'm assuming they do, they had better start protecting him. They need depth on their line, and having Konz will certainly help since he can play center and guard. He can also step right in to play, which the Steelers need, since his 30 games started in the Big 10 is plenty of experience for a lineman. This pick also helps the Steelers in the run game too, as Konz can block at the line, down field, and has the mobility to pull.  A big reason why Rashard Mendenhall struggled all year was the O-line's inability to clear any room for him. This was another factor in putting excess pressure on Big Ben, eventually leaving him hobbled to end the season and playoffs.

25. Denver Broncos
Lamar Miller, RB, Miami (Fla)
If the Broncos are going to commit to having Tim Tebow as their starting quarterback, Lamar Miller is the right pick here. Willis McGahee does not have another 285 carry season in him, and the Broncos' offense relies heavily on having a running back to support Tebow in the option game. Miller has break away speed that could help provide the big plays that Denver was lacking last season, and he has great hands, which will be an asset to a quarterback like Tebow, who frankly is still learning how to read defenses quickly and effectively. Miller is much better outside the tackles, which works in Denver since Tebow and McGahee can handle the inside running duties. If we are going to be realistic, many of Denver's comebacks were filled with good fortune last year, and if they want to make the playoffs again next year, they are going to have to score more points. Miller certainly could help with that.

26. Houston Texans
Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi
The Texans' defense is scary, and if they can re-sign Mario Williams, it will be terrifying. If I was a quarterback going up against the Texans, I might fake an injury. Brooks Reed, JJ Watt, Demeco Ryans, Brian Cushing and Mario Williams? I'm all set. Selecting Cox here adds insult to injury (for opposing quarterbacks) and gives the Texans an interior pass-rusher to compliment all of the aforementioned pieces. He would be a guy to have on the field in passing downs, with the Texans switching to Terence Cody in the middle on short yardage plays. He has the potential for even more physical growth, which would push him into an every down role on a team.

27. New England Patriots
Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
There is no question that the Patriots need help at cornerback, as most teams who break the record for most passing yards allowed in a season (only to be re-broken by the Packers minutes later, but I digress) generally do. With that being said, Bill Belichick won't simply draft a player for need. He knows that you need the right guys in the locker room and on the field who are football players and are willing to not just specialize in one part of the game, but multiple aspects. Dennard is a pretty complete cornerback, which makes me think he is a good fit for the Pats. His one weakness is man coverage on quick receivers down field, but the Patriots play much more zone coverage in the secondary than man. Dennard is also a solid tackler, can recognize screens, and can move up to stop the run. Dennard can also be a special teams contributor, almost a necessity for any rookie looking for playing time under Belichick.

28. Green Bay Packers
Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois
Whitney Mercilus was the nation's top play maker on defense last year, leading the country with 16 sacks and forcing 9 fumbles, second most in NCAA history. The Packers relied on making big plays last year to stay competitive on defense, giving up the most yards per game in the NFL, but finishing in the middle of the pack in points allowed. Mercilus is not only the best player on the board at this spot, he is also a perfect fit for the team, adding to a pass rush that was tied for third worst in sacks in the NFL. The Pats could take Mercilus in the 27th spot, but the Packers would have no problem taking Dennard here either, despite it not being quite as good of a fit.

29. Baltimore Ravens
Randy Bullock, K, Texas A&M
Just kidding, Billf Cundiff. But seriously, I would practice your chain-watching skills this off-season.
Cordy Glenn, G, Georgia
If you watched Baltimore Ravens games that weren't against the St. Louis Rams last season, you know that Ray Rice is the offense, as much as Cam Cameron wants to fight it. Matt Birk is getting old and the Ravens offensive line as a whole is thin, so Glenn is a good piece to add to the middle. The Ravens would love another offensive weapon to select here, but depth on the offensive line is no longer a luxury in the NFL, it is a necessity. Every offensive line in the NFL has starters miss games because of the nature of the position, and because of the sheer fact that they account for at least five of the eleven guys on the field each offensive play. We saw in Pittsburgh that even a good running back can be limited by his poor offensive line, and if you limit Ray Rice, you limit the Ravens.

30. San Fransisco 49ers
Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
The Niners do not have an elite quarterback in Alex Smith, assuming he re-signs with the team. However Smith is a good game manager that allows other players to make plays around him, and also relies on the best defense in the NFL to keep games close. A player like Alshon Jeffery fits in perfectly to this system because he isn't a guy that Smith has to get the ball to thirty yards down field in order to make a big play. Jefferey can use his size and length to make plays after the catch, which could help spark the terrible 49er passing game.  He also has the ability to make the circus catch, allowing this passing game to move down field at times, which it can't do with it's current weapons. With Crabtree, Davis, Jeffery and Gore, this offense won't look like the New Orleans Saints, but it can certainly improve from last year.

31. New England Patriots
Andre Branch, DE, Clemson
Assuming that the Patriots stay in this slot, it would make sense to continue to feed talent into the defensive side of the ball. Branch is a high-motor guy who fits the Belichick mode for a guy in this position, meaning that he can play OLB in the 3-4 and DE in the 4-3 defense, and is a very Colvin-like 6'4" and 260 lbs. The Pats seem to have a lot of talent on the inside of the line and far more questions at the OLB/DE slot. With Mark Anderson and Andre Carter being free agents, Branch might have an opportunity to contribute early.  Also, I believe Belichck hasn't taken a pass-rusher in the draft in recent years because of the fact that they are so hit-or-miss, making pass rushers a big gamble to spend a first round pick on. However, with the Super Bowl loss, and the Brady championship window always slowly closing, coupled with the fact that they have two first round picks, it might be about time Belichick pulled the trigger on a guy who can get to the quarterback.

32. New York Giants
Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson
Even if Jake Ballard didn't tear his right ACL in the Super Bowl, tight end would still be a weak spot on the Giants. Allen is a pass-catching tight end who has good blocking form, but doesn't posess the bulk to be relied upon as a "blocking tight end".  He does, however, posess the speed, hands, and route-running ability to be a very effective pass-catching tight end at the next level.  Allen would be able to consistently get open because of his skill and also because of how effectively Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks can stretch the field.  We have seen the tight end make a resurgence as a crucial role in a high-powered offense with the likes of Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Jermichael Finley and Antonio Gates helping fuel four of the five top-scoring offenses in the league.  Manning has shown that he is right on the cusp of becoming the leader of an elite-level offense, and Allen would greatly help in pushing them past that barrier.

To hear in-depth Boston sports talk, listen to BTownSports Radio on-demand.